Posted by: Rick | Sunday, October 18, 2009

Krugman Capitulates: Happy Days Are Here Again!

I have two heroes: Keith Richards and Paul Krugman.

Keith is not allowed on this blog.  (But check out this book — it’s a perfect stocking stuffer for your loved ones.) 

Paul, on the other hand — the only pundit in America who stood up to George W. Bush from the beginning — is quoted often in these parts.  I’ve even been brave enough (or, more accurately, stupid enough) to disagree with him in his field of expertise.

Well, my single foray into macroeconomic forecasting is looking pretty good right now.  (You can bet I’ll never risk another one!)  Mr. Nobel Prize is coming around to my way of thinking:

We won’t be getting a 3rd-quarter GDP estimate until October 29, but we do have industrial production — and it’s growing seriously fast: 5.2% annual rate for 3rd quarter, even faster in the last month. . . .

If that’s right, and it continues, we should be seeing some job gains soon; the negative miracle of rapid growth without jobs can’t continue indefinitely.

Krugman is notoriously pessimistic.  It may be time to consider the possibility that 2010 won’t be as bleak for Democrats as advertised.

I walk farther out on that ridiculously shaky limb here.



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